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Patrick Warren
Vice President, MSCI Research
Patrick’s research covers a broad range of topics across private market strategies, including performance, cash flow management and risk. He previously worked in commodity research at IHS Markit, and before that, as a research affiliate at MIT studying firm behavior. He holds a master’s degree from Boston University and a bachelor’s degree from the University of Washington, both in economics.
Research and Insights
Articles by Patrick Warren
When Spreads Meet: A Changing Picture on Private-Credit Loans
5 mins read Blog | Nov 20, 2024 | Patrick Warren, Daniel HadleySpreads on corporate mezzanine loans in private-credit funds have fallen dramatically since 2022, changing the picture on the loans that are normally deemed higher-risk than senior loans. Funds treated real-estate borrowers differently, however.
Signals of Distress in Private Credit
2 mins read Quick Take | Sep 17, 2024 | Patrick WarrenPrivate-credit funds are in the spotlight because of their growth — and the opaque credit risk of the loans they hold. We use a signal of nonperformance to examine the trends in defaults for the asset class.
Reports of Buyout’s Liquidity Risk Are Greatly Exaggerated
5 mins read Blog | Aug 28, 2024 | Ashley Lester, Luis O’Shea, Patrick WarrenExcess returns in private markets are often attributed to the extra compensation for carrying liquidity risk, but is this perception of risk warranted? We analyzed various buyout-allocation targets to find evidence for the concern.
Are Private Capital’s Cash Flows Back to Normal?
2 mins read Quick Take | Jul 12, 2024 | Patrick Warren, Luis O’SheaPrivate-market investors experienced a sustained slump in distributions across buyout and venture capital and, to a lesser extent, private credit. We look at the recent apparent recovery in private-market cash-flow activity and what that could mean for limited partners.
India’s Changed — and Changing — Equity Markets
5 mins read Blog | Jul 5, 2024 | Patrick Warren, Rohit Gupta, Anil RaoWe segmented India’s public equity market to study patterns in its factor, thematic and industry exposures. And to assess how the current market profile could change, we also analyzed private firms that may be in the pipeline to become public.
Are Subscription Lines of Credit Still Worth the Cost?
2 mins read Quick Take | May 8, 2024 | Patrick WarrenSubscription lines of credit have become widespread across buyout, private-debt and real-estate funds, but elevated interest rates are prompting investors to reassess their sub lines’ value. How much has it cost funds to service this debt?
Inflating Returns with Subscription Lines of Credit
5 mins read Blog | Jan 9, 2024 | Patrick Warren, Luis O’SheaThe increased use of subscription lines of credit by general partners in some private-capital funds has lifted returns by squeezing the timeframe over which returns are calculated. We examine buyout, private-credit and real-estate funds to see where the greatest inflation lay.
Surveying the Medley of Sub Lines in Private Funds
5 mins read Blog | Dec 5, 2023 | Patrick WarrenVisibility on the use of subscription lines of credit is of key importance to limited partners in private funds. We examined a selection of real-estate, venture-capital and buyout funds to note some key differences between and within private-capital strategies.
A Question of Balance(s) in Subscription Lines of Credit
5 mins read Blog | Sep 12, 2023 | Patrick WarrenAmid the growing usage of sub lines across private capital funds, we explore how intensively funds draw on their sub lines — a critical determinant of how sub lines will affect internal rates of return.
The Rise (and Rise) of Sub Lines in Private Capital
6 mins read Blog | Jul 11, 2023 | Patrick WarrenPrivate capital funds have grown increasingly comfortable utilizing subscription lines of credit, though usage varies. We examine their deployment across venture capital, buyout, real estate and debt funds.
Diversifying Away Cash Drag
5 mins read Blog | Mar 29, 2023 | Patrick Warren, Luis O’SheaConstructing self-financing private-capital portfolios, where distributions exceed contributions, can simplify a limited partner’s liquidity-management strategy and reduce cash drag. How could diversification help investors in this effort?
How Accurate Are ‘Zombie’ Valuations?
5 mins read Blog | Nov 29, 2022 | Patrick WarrenAre general partners overstating zombie valuations, and thereby postponing eventual write-downs, or should LPs ultimately expect this capital to be distributed in full? We present evidence that zombie assets have been, on average, appropriately valued.
Where Have All the Cash Flows Gone?
6 mins read Blog | Oct 11, 2022 | Patrick Warren, Luis O’SheaAn assessment of private-market cash flows as of June 2022 indicates mixed signals for limited partners. The prudence of maintaining a diversified portfolio is as important as ever.
Breaking Down Private-Debt Concentration
2 mins read Quick Take | Apr 14, 2022 | Patrick WarrenAnalysis of the Burgiss Manager Universe revealed heavy concentration within private debt across rate structure, seniority and benchmark index. We break down the findings for investors.
How Risky Are Private Assets?
Research Report | Jan 1, 2022 | Patrick Warren, Luis O’SheaEstimating risk in private markets presents a perennial challenge for reasons such as the low frequency of operations and irregular cash flows. We discuss the importance of risk-adjusted returns for asset allocation and present a way to gauge volatility across asset classes.