Future Demand, Supply and Prices for Voluntary Carbon Credits — Keeping the Balance

This report originally appeared on trove-research.com. MSCI acquired Trove Research — now known as MSCI Carbon Markets — in November 2023.

This land-mark study, conducted in collaboration with University College London (UCL), produces the first analysis of the long-term demand, supply and prices of carbon credits (carbon offsets) in the voluntary carbon market. The analysis models future demand for carbon credits from over 5,000 companies using a range of forecasting approaches. Future carbon-credit supply uses satellite imagery, together with detailed spatial and economic modeling, to project the future costs of meeting this demand. The analysis concludes that considerably higher prices are needed to incentivize a large-scale change in land use away from agriculture toward preserving and restoring forests, and to invest in capturing and storing CO2 in the atmosphere.