Future Size of the Voluntary Carbon Market

This report originally appeared on trove-research.com. MSCI acquired Trove Research — now known as MSCI Carbon Markets — in November 2023.

This report examines the basis of estimates for the future size of the voluntary carbon market and makes suggestions on how these figures should be interpreted. We conclude there will be a growing demand for carbon credits from companies looking to offset emissions and that prices should and will rise, but not to the levels suggested by the Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets (TSVCM).

Our research forecasts a voluntary market size of USD 10-40 billion in 2030 — someway short of the TSVCM’s higher estimates of USD 100-180 billion. If the voluntary carbon market is to make a material contribution to global decarbonization efforts a sustained effort is required on a several fronts.