OneTrust Cookie Consent

Navigation

  • Skip to Content
  • Client Log In
  • Investor relations  (opens in a new tab)
  • Sustainability Institute  (opens in a new tab)
  • Subscribe
  • Contact us
  • Careers
  • Region
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Client Log In
  • MSCI ONE  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI Client Support Site
  • Barra PortfolioManager
  • BarraOne  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI ESG Manager  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI ESG Direct  (opens in a new tab)
  • Global Index Lens
  • MSCI Real Assets Analytics Portal  (opens in a new tab)
  • RiskManager 3  (opens in a new tab)
  • CreditManager  (opens in a new tab)
  • RiskManager 4  (opens in a new tab)
  • Index Monitor  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI Datscha  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics  (opens in a new tab)
  • Private i  (opens in a new tab)
  • Total Plan/Caissa  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI Wealth Manager (Fabric)  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI Carbon Markets  (opens in a new tab)
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Region
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
Navigation

Navigation Menu

  • Our Clients
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Our Clients
    • Asset Managers
    • Asset Owners
    • Banks
    • Corporates
    • Hedge Funds
    • Insurance Companies
    • Wealth Managers
  • Our Solutions
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Our Solutions
    • Analytics
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Analytics
      • Analytics Overview
      • Risk Management
      • AI Portfolio Insights
      • Multi-asset Class Factor Models
      • Quantitative Investment Solutions
      • Fixed Income Analytics
      • Portfolio Management
      • Crowding Solutions
      • Regulatory Solutions
      • Managed Solutions
    • Climate Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Climate Investing
      • Climate Investing Overview
      • Biodiversity
      • Carbon Markets
      • GeoSpatial Asset Intelligence
      • Portfolio Sustainability Insights
      • Real Estate Climate Solutions
    • Sustainable Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Sustainable Investing
      • Sustainable Investing Overview
      • ESG Fund Ratings and Climate Search Tool
      • ESG Ratings
      • Impact Solutions
      • Sustainability Reporting Services
      • Sustainability and Climate Regulatory Toolkit
    • Factor Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Factor Investing
      • Factor Investing Overview
      • Equity Factor Models
      • FactorLab
      • MSCI FaCS
      • Factor Indexes
    • Fixed Income
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Fixed Income
      • Fixed Income Overview
      • Fixed Income Analytics
      • Fixed Income Indexes
    • Private Capital
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Private Capital
      • Private Capital Overview
      • Private i
      • Total Plan Manager (formerly Caissa)
      • Emissions Footprinting
      • Private Capital Indexes
      • Private Company Data Connect
    • Real Assets
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Real Assets
      • Real Assets Overview
      • INCANS
      • Index Intel
      • Portfolio Services
      • Property Intel
      • Private Real Assets Indexes
      • Real Capital Analytics
    • Wealth Management
  • Indexes
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Indexes
    • Indexes Overview
    • By Category
      • Go back to Indexes
      • By Category
      • By Category Overview
      • Climate
      • Market Cap
      • Fixed Income
      • Client-Designed
      • Sustainability
      • Factor
      • Thematic
      • Private Real Assets
      • Private Capital
    • Tools
      • Go back to Indexes
      • Tools
      • Tools Overview
      • Index Monitor
      • MSCI Index API
      • MSCI IndexMetrics®
      • Index Data Modules
      • Equity Index Constituents
      • Fixed Income Index Constituents
      • Index Profile Tool
      • Direct Indexing
    • Resources
      • Go back to Indexes
      • Resources
      • Resources Overview
      • Communications
      • Education
      • Equity Factsheets
      • Derivatives
      • Methodology
      • Performance
      • Regulation
  • Research & Insights
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Research & Insights
    • Research & Insights
      • Go back to Research & Insights
      • Research & Insights
      • Research & Insights Overview
      • Carbon Markets
      • Climate
      • Equities
      • Factor Investing
      • Fixed Income
      • Multi-Asset Class
      • Private Capital
      • Real Estate
      • Sustainability
    • Events
      • Go back to Research & Insights
      • Events
      • Events Overview
      • On Demand
  • Discover MSCI
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Discover MSCI
    • About Us
    • Technology
      • Go back to Discover MSCI
      • Technology
      • Technology Overview
      • Data Explorer
      • Developer Community
      • Technology and Data
    • Corporate Responsibility
      • Go back to Discover MSCI
      • Corporate Responsibility
      • Corporate Responsibility Overview
      • Enabling Sustainable Investing
      • Environmental Sustainability
      • Governance Practices
      • Social Practices
      • Sustainability Reports and Policies
    • Inclusion & Belonging
    • Media Room
    • Our Leadership
    • Recognition
  • Client Log In
  • Investor relations  (opens in a new tab)
  • Sustainability Institute  (opens in a new tab)
  • Subscribe
  • Contact us
  • Careers
  • Region
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Client Log In
  • MSCI ONE  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI Client Support Site
  • Barra PortfolioManager
  • BarraOne  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI ESG Manager  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI ESG Direct  (opens in a new tab)
  • Global Index Lens
  • MSCI Real Assets Analytics Portal  (opens in a new tab)
  • RiskManager 3  (opens in a new tab)
  • CreditManager  (opens in a new tab)
  • RiskManager 4  (opens in a new tab)
  • Index Monitor  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI Datscha  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics  (opens in a new tab)
  • Private i  (opens in a new tab)
  • Total Plan/Caissa  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI Wealth Manager (Fabric)  (opens in a new tab)
  • MSCI Carbon Markets  (opens in a new tab)
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Region
  • China
  • India
  • Japan

Main Search

Popular searches:
ACWI (opens in a new tab) Research (opens in a new tab) ESG (opens in a new tab) Factor Investment (opens in a new tab) Insights Gallery (opens in a new tab) Asset Owners (opens in a new tab)
Might interest you:
Powering Better Portfolios through Technology and Data
MSCI offers clients mission-critical data and technology capabilities focused on quality, reliability, and scale. To power the next wave of growth,...
ESG Ratings
MSCI ESG Ratings provides insights into ESG risks and opportunities within multi-asset class portfolios.
Research
MSCI has applied pioneering ideas to real-world investment challenges for more than four decades.
Has Inflation Affected the Bond-Equity Relationship?

Extended Viewer

 

Has Inflation Affected the Bond-Equity Relationship?

 

Andy Sparks and Juan Sampieri
June 21, 2022

The sharp rise in inflation over the past year and a half, combined with growing concern over the U.S. economy’s strength, may prompt investors to rethink basic assumptions underlying portfolios comprised of bonds, equities and other asset classes.

As shown below, major stock sell-offs (defined as monthly returns below -2%) since September 2021 coincided with sell-offs in Treasurys. By contrast, in the prior two decades, equity sell-offs tended to occur with Treasury rallies. Stated otherwise, bonds’ stabilizing influence in multi-asset-class (MAC) portfolios has been less apparent in the recent data. This calls into question the diversification benefits of balanced portfolios, including the popular 60%-equity/40%-bond strategy.

Investors may be further unsettled by observing that the recent Treasury-equity co-movement is similar to that during the Great Stagflation, between 1978 and 1982, when large equity sell-offs tended to coincide with sell-offs in Treasurys.

 

The beginning of a new era?

Investors trying to project future co-movements between bonds and equities now face the challenge of interpreting the historical data, identifying drivers and projecting potential paths of growth and inflation.

The Federal Reserve’s actions might also play an important role. During his June 15 remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the Fed’s intense focus on reducing inflation and expressed satisfaction that the tightening of financial conditions over the past seven months is healthy and will continue to temper growth and bring demand into better balance with supply.

Can the Fed affect the bond-equity relationship? The Fed’s credibility with market participants may be the key.1 A vigilant Fed bringing down market inflation expectations could help restore the role of bonds as diversifiers in MAC portfolios, tending to rally when equities sell off.

Are bonds still an anchor, or just added dead weight?

Treasury return is computed using the 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield, retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s FRED database. Equity return is from the MSCI USA Index. U.S. realized inflation is the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.


1 In MSCI's macro-finance model, elevated supply-side risk induces a negative inflation-growth correlation and may result in a positive return correlation between stocks and bonds.


Related Content

Fed Policy and the Threat of Stagflation

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has amplified supply-driven inflation and growth concerns in the U.S. and led to a recognition that last year’s high, demand-driven inflation might not have been transitory.

Explore More  (opens in a new tab)

Are rates and equities losing their balance?

For most of the past two decades, a benevolent relationship between bonds and equities has provided a hedge for asset allocators. We used our macroeconomic model to examine whether this risk protection could disappear in a secular shift.

Learn More  (opens in a new tab)

Bonds and Equities: Still Happy Together?

Investors accustomed to bonds anchoring their portfolios during stormy equity markets may seek to reevaluate their portfolio strategies.

Read More  (opens in a new tab)

msci logo
  • Terms of Use
  • Legal
  • Modern Slavery Statement
  • Privacy notice
  • Index regulation
  • Locations
  • Cookies
  • Use of ISO standards
  • Site map
Subscribe Contact us
© 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved

UtmAnalytics