Should investors care about incorporating environmental data into equity analysis? Several academic studies have questioned whether sustainable investing and environmental metrics have been positively correlated with above-market returns.[1] Building on our previous research, we looked at the long-term relationship between MSCI ESG Ratings and market performance to help answer this question. We found that the listed companies worldwide that we rated most highly on their approach to financially material environmental risks and opportunities — the environmental pillar in our ESG Ratings — outperformed their lower-rated peers. On average, the highest-rated companies delivered 0.4% greater annualized total return than the lowest-rated since September 2013, after adjusting for region, industry and company size.[2]
A temporary pause or a significant shift in the climate movement?
The MSCI ESG Ratings model groups key issues within the environmental pillar into three risk-focused themes (climate change, natural capital and pollution and waste) and one opportunity-focused theme.
Mapping and data coverage rates of financially material environmental risks and opportunities
Among them, climate change delivered the strongest outperformance since September 2013 across both developed and emerging markets (EM) on a cumulative return basis. This outperformance could be largely driven by investors’ increasing focus on climate-related risks and opportunities, which has intensified in recent years. The widespread availability of carbon emissions data — relevant for 93% of companies in the MSCI ACWI — has enabled more accurate assessment and alignment of portfolios with climate goals. Notably, the surge in investor interest and corresponding outperformance has been more pronounced since 2020, as global climate commitments and regulatory pressures have accelerated.
Cumulative returns for highest- vs. lowest-rated quintiles, equal weighted
Within key issues focused on environmental risk, companies that were leading on carbon emissions and product carbon footprint delivered the greatest annualized market outperformance (1.6% and 3.2%, respectively) versus laggards since 2013.[3] This may indicate the greater financial relevance of decarbonization compared to environmental risks related to water stress and biodiversity, as well as to toxic, packaging and electronic waste. Within the carbon-emissions key issue, companies that demonstrated leading capabilities to manage this risk had greater market outperformance than companies with the lowest exposure to carbon-emissions-related risks.
Although the leaders in the environmental-opportunities theme recorded higher market returns compared to laggards over the 11-year study period, that outperformance has sharply reversed since 2021, likely due to the headwinds in business activities related to clean tech, renewable energy and green buildings. These headwinds included higher interest rates and inflation as well as supply-chain issues, which hurt the profitability of capital-intensive green infrastructure projects. Rising bond yields, regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical tensions also negatively impacted valuations.
Superior returns across all sectors except energy
Our analysis showed that companies leading on the climate-change theme globally delivered between 2% and 9% annualized market outperformance compared to laggards over the 11 years ending March 2024. The only exception were companies in the energy sector. The outperformance was highest for the information-technology and financials sectors, followed by energy-intensive utilities, materials and industrials. Outperformance was the lowest for health-care companies.
Annualized returns of highest- vs. lowest-rated quintiles, equal weighted
Energy was the only sector where laggards in the climate-change theme delivered greater returns. Beginning in 2021, several factors — geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions, the pandemic-induced recovery in energy demand and production cuts by the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) — may have contributed to the strong performance by boosting energy prices and earnings for companies overrepresented within the laggards for the climate-change theme. In particular, these were oil and gas companies (notably listed companies from non-OPEC countries) and coal miners (particularly from China, where emissions rules are less onerous and where coal use for power and heat production got a boost as oil and gas fuel became more expensive).
A renewed momentum for environmental-opportunity leaders?
Since the beginning of 2021, improved earnings amid the energy crisis have helped the MSCI World Energy Sector Index outperform the MSCI Global Environment Index and the broader equity market (as measured by the MSCI ACWI). Despite this, our analysis of consensus earnings estimates by equity analysts indicates potentially renewed momentum for environmental-opportunity leaders.[4]
The gap between the aggregate net income of environmental-opportunity leaders versus laggards is set to re-emerge by 2027 amid higher expected net income and EBITDA growth in 2024-27 for the top quintile, consensus shows. This expectation is underpinned by an anticipated relative (and, in many cases, also absolute) improvement in net-income margins of environmental-opportunities leaders versus laggards through 2027 compared to 2023. The shift appears most likely within the utilities, materials and real-estate sectors. Those leaders are also expected to deliver improved performance compared to laggards for price-to-earnings ratios between 2024 and 2027 due to stronger earnings rather than higher share-price valuations.
Median net income of highest- vs. lowest-rated quintiles, equal weighted
A similarly improved outlook helped fuel strong outperformance in leaders within the environmental-opportunity theme in 2020. This time around it could be explained by an expected easing of headwinds related to high interest rates and inflation, permitting delays and supply-chain bottlenecks. Green policies, including the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, EU Net-Zero Industry Act, Japan's Green Transformation package and the planned expansion of China’s emissions trading system and its energy-market reforms, could help companies further capitalize on environmental opportunities.
Risk-based strategies outperformed opportunity-focused ones so far
Many investors already choose to align their portfolios with climate goals to aid the assessment and mitigation of financial risks and to capitalize on opportunities related to environmental factors. The link we observed over the last 11 years between climate-change risk scores and equity-market outperformance supports incorporating carbon and footprint data into equity analysis. And while the case for incorporating environmental opportunities has so far been less obvious, that could change going forward.